St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusBarbados Royals

11 Sept 2025 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots won by 1 runs

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs150/7 Barbados Royals20.0 overs149/7 Kensington Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 42%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Royals is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 13% to 75% during the match (Barbados Royals: 25% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.2: JO Holder to CJ Green, CJ Green out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 37% to 58%.
2nd inns 19.1: JO Holder to HE van der Dussen, six by HE van der Dussen. Barbados Royals up from 25% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.6: JO Holder to DR Sams, DR Sams out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 28% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots150/7 Barbados Royals149/7

Innings 1