**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusMI Cape Town

25 Jan 2025 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Cape Town won by 7 wickets

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs149/6 MI Cape Town14.5 overs154/3 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 45%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (MI Cape Town: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: GF Linde to BA King, BA King out. MI Cape Town up from 53% to 65%.
2.6: TA Boult to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. MI Cape Town up from 67% to 77%.
6.1: Rashid Khan to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. MI Cape Town up from 79% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Durban's Super Giants149/6 MI Cape Town154/3

Innings 1