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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
17 Aug 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Spain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Spain started on 80%; Spain batted first.
Spain's chances ranged from 65% to 100% during the match (Luxembourg: 0% to 35%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Ihsanbowled · J Madan 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b J Madan | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 120.00 |
| GS Bajwalbw · Vivek Dixit 1 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Vivek Dixit | 36 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 138.46 |
| Mohammad Kamranrun out · SKS Gill, William Cope · Kamal Soukhiya 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · SKS Gill, William Cope | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Yasir Alibowled · J Madan 7 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b J Madan | 64 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 142.22 |
| D Doyle-Callecaught · Milad Momend · Kamal Soukhiya 1 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Milad Momend · b Kamal Soukhiya | 62 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 229.63 |
| Hamza Dar |
| caught · Mayank Nagayach · b J Madan |
| 10 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 333.33 |
| Christian Munoz-Millsnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 300.00 |
|---|
| A Davidson Solernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Madan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamal Soukhiya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Milad Momend0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayank Nagayach0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 11.00 | 2 | 0 |
| V Vijh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 10.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Vivek Dixit0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-14 (Mohammad Ihsan, 2.1) · 2-24 (Mohammad Kamran, 3.4) · 3-76 (GS Bajwa, 10.1) · 4-166 (Yasir Ali, 18.1) · 5-176 (Hamza Dar, 18.4) · 6-204 (D Doyle-Calle, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 23/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 11 | 37/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 44/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 51/2 |
| 9 | 16 | 67/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 76/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 91/3 |
| 13 | 9 | 100/3 |
| 14 | 15 | 115/3 |
| 15 | 13 | 128/3 |
| 16 | 15 | 143/3 |
| 17 | 10 | 153/3 |
| 18 | 13 | 166/3 |
| 19 | 16 | 182/5 |
| 20 | 24 | 206/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.