San Francisco UnicornsversusWashington Freedom

25 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 7 wickets

San Francisco Unicorns19.0 overs145/10 Washington Freedom15.3 overs149/3 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

San Francisco Unicorns started on 47%; San Francisco Unicorns batted first.

San Francisco Unicorns’s chance of winning (%) · Washington Freedom is the rest

San Francisco Unicorns's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Washington Freedom: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: M Jansen to FH Allen, FH Allen out. Washington Freedom up from 45% to 58%.
6.3: R Ravindra to SP Krishnamurthi, SP Krishnamurthi out. Washington Freedom up from 60% to 72%.
2nd inns 8.5: Hassan Khan to R Ravindra, R Ravindra out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 26% to 38%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

San Francisco Unicorns145/10 Washington Freedom149/3

Innings 1