Jamaica KingsmenversusSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots

27 Aug 2026 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Jamaica Kingsmen won by 11 runs

Jamaica Kingsmen20.0 overs182/7 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs171/6 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Jamaica Kingsmen started on 49%; Jamaica Kingsmen batted first.

Jamaica Kingsmen’s chance of winning (%) · St Kitts and Nevis Patriots is the rest

Jamaica Kingsmen's chances ranged from 24% to 99% during the match (St Kitts and Nevis Patriots: 1% to 76%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Naseem Shah to KU Carty, KU Carty out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 51% to 66%.
2nd inns 4.5: KMA Paul to J Charles, J Charles out. Jamaica Kingsmen up from 51% to 65%.
2nd inns 5.5: J Blades to KO Wickham, KO Wickham out. Jamaica Kingsmen up from 65% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Jamaica Kingsmen182/7 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots171/6

Innings 1