IndonesiaversusSouth Korea

5 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

South Korea won by 8 wickets

Indonesia20.0 overs99/10 South Korea13.3 overs102/2 Yeonhui Cricket Ground, Incheon ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Korea more likely to win

34%Indonesia66%South Korea

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Korea rate stronger than Indonesia (1,406 vs 1,280 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 7 and South Korea won 3
South Korea are playing at home in South Korea

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 32%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · South Korea is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (South Korea: 66% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Alam Nakash to Rohit Sharma, Rohit Sharma out. South Korea up from 66% to 74%.
3.2: Alam Nakash to GA Priandana, GA Priandana out. South Korea up from 76% to 83%.
9.2: Aamir Lal to GD Arta, GD Arta out. South Korea up from 84% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia99/10 South Korea102/2

Innings 1

Indonesia

99/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Indonesia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Gede Priandanabowled · Alam Nakash 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Alam Nakash	3	10	0	0	30.00
Rohit Sharmalbw · Alam Nakash 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Alam Nakash	4	4	0	0	100.00
Dharma Kesumacaught · Alam Nakash · Aamir Lal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alam Nakash · b Aamir Lal	7	18	0	0	38.89
Kavin Chaddhacaught · Jun Hyunwoo · Aamir Lal 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jun Hyunwoo · b Aamir Lal	18	15	0	1	120.00
Kadek Gamantikanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes	not out	37*	38	1	0	97.37
Gede Arta

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chamith Ranasinghe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	0	3.50	1
Alam Nakash0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	2	4.00	2
Sageer Ahmad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	2
Sameera Maduranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	1	4.50	0
Aamir Lal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	5	4.00	1
Areeb Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	0
Kuldeep Gurjar0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	4
Daham Madampage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	2	7/1
3	2	9/1
4	5	14/2
5	8	22/2
6	5	27/2
7	4	31/2
8	7	38/4
9	4	42/4
10	3	45/5
11	6	51/5
12	5	56/6
13	5	61/6
14	1	62/7
15	4	66/7
16	7	73/8
17	5	78/8
18	7	85/8
19	5	90/9
20	9	99/10

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