Adelaide StrikersversusHobart Hurricanes

16 Nov 2024 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 38 runs

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs140/7 Hobart Hurricanes15.2 overs102/10 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 50%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 18% to 99% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 1% to 82%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.5: ML Schutt to CL Tryon, CL Tryon out. Adelaide Strikers up from 47% to 69%.
2nd inns 12.6: A Wellington to SW Bates, SW Bates out. Adelaide Strikers up from 41% to 67%.
2nd inns 13.3: TM McGrath to M Strano, M Strano out. Adelaide Strikers up from 68% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers140/7 Hobart Hurricanes102/10

Innings 1