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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
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United States of America Women tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Women
17 Oct 2024 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 45%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Zimbabwe: 50% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gargi Bhoglebowled · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josephine Nkomo | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
| D Dhingralbw · Audrey Mazvishaya 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Audrey Mazvishaya | 23 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 67.65 |
| Anika Kolanbowled · Christabel Chatonzwa 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 37 | 61 | 5 | 0 | 60.66 |
| Ella Claridgecaught · Modester Mupachikwa · Audrey Mazvishaya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b Audrey Mazvishaya | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Sindhu Sriharshalbw · Christabel Chatonzwa0 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Christabel Chatonzwa |
| 14 |
| 31 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 45.16 |
| Isani Vaghelacaught · Modester Mupachikwa · B Biza 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b B Biza | 14 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Geetika Kodalicaught · Modester Mupachikwa · B Biza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b B Biza | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| AI Chudasamalbw · B Biza 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b B Biza | 12 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Tara Norriscaught · Modester Mupachikwa · Josephine Nkomo4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b Josephine Nkomo | 31 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 110.71 |
|---|
| L Shettybowled · Josephine Nkomo 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josephine Nkomo | 8 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 29.63 |
|---|
| S Immadinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomvelo Sibanda1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Josephine Nkomo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.5 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 4.24 | 1 | 0 |
| Audrey Mazvishaya2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 2.44 | 1 | 0 |
| L Mabhero0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 3.71 | 2 | 0 |
| Christabel Chatonzwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| B Biza1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 22 | 3 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| R Pasipanodya0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-7 (Gargi Bhogle, 3.4) · 2-42 (D Dhingra, 12.2) · 3-42 (Ella Claridge, 12.4) · 4-75 (Anika Kolan, 22.1) · 5-92 (Isani Vaghela, 27.3) · 6-92 (Sindhu Sriharsha, 28.1) · 7-107 (AI Chudasama, 33.3) · 8-119 (Geetika Kodali, 35.5) · 9-147 (Tara Norris, 42.0) · 10-152 (L Shetty, 43.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 10/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 16/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 31/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 36/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 39/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 42/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 48/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 51/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 51/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 56/3 |
| 19 | 10 | 66/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 79/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 83/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 88/4 |
| 26 | 0 | 88/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 90/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 92/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 96/6 |
| 30 | 2 | 98/6 |
| 31 | 1 | 99/6 |
| 32 | 2 | 101/6 |
| 33 | 5 | 106/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 107/7 |
| 35 | 10 | 117/7 |
| 36 | 2 | 119/8 |
| 37 | 8 | 127/8 |
| 38 | 5 | 132/8 |
| 39 | 3 | 135/8 |
| 40 | 8 | 143/8 |
| 41 | 1 | 144/8 |
| 42 | 3 | 147/9 |
| 43 | 1 | 148/9 |
| 44 | 4 | 152/10 |
Tara Norris: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sindhu Sriharsha: Hong Kong Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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