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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
16 May 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 50%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 0% to 80% during the match (Nepal: 20% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Sompal Kami 8 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Sompal Kami | 83 | 89 | 8 | 3 | 93.26 |
| Shayan Jahangirbowled · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sompal Kami | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Shehan Jayasuriyacaught · Gulsan Jha · Dipendra Singh Airee 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 50 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 96.15 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallabowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Milind Kumarlbw · Dipendra Singh Airee 2 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 28 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 68.29 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Shubham Ranjanerun out · B Sharki, Aasif Sheikh · Lalit Rajbanshi0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · B Sharki, Aasif Sheikh | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Sanjay Krishnamurthicaught · Lalit Rajbanshi · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lalit Rajbanshi · b Gulsan Jha | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Rohit Kumar · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 14 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 60.87 |
|---|
| Mohammad Mohsinrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee · Rohit Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nosthush Kenjigelbw · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkarnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sompal Kami1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 3.89 | 1 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 1 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.3 | 0 | 24 | 4 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Shayan Jahangir, 6.1) · 2-122 (Shehan Jayasuriya, 22.4) · 3-140 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 25.5) · 4-158 (Smit Patel, 30.5) · 5-170 (Shubham Ranjane, 33.3) · 6-171 (Sanjay Krishnamurthi, 34.5) · 7-182 (Milind Kumar, 37.3) · 8-183 (Mohammad Mohsin, 38.4) · 9-186 (Nosthush Kenjige, 39.4) · 10-195 (Harmeet Singh, 43.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 31/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 49/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 55/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 13 | 12 | 69/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 71/1 |
| 15 | 10 | 81/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 84/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 93/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 94/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 96/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 104/1 |
| 21 | 10 | 114/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 119/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 124/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 129/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 136/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 140/3 |
| 27 | 9 | 149/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 150/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 152/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 155/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 158/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 160/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 166/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 171/5 |
| 35 | 0 | 171/6 |
| 36 | 1 | 172/6 |
| 37 | 9 | 181/6 |
| 38 | 1 | 182/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 183/8 |
| 40 | 3 | 186/9 |
| 41 | 1 | 187/9 |
| 42 | 8 | 195/9 |
| 43 | 0 | 195/9 |
| 44 | 0 | 195/10 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
