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ICC Women's T20 World Cup East Asia Pacific Qualifier · 2025 · Women
15 Sept 2025 · T20
Fiji more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Samoa started on 47%; Samoa batted first.
Samoa's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Fiji: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Sootagarun out · S Lomani, AK Gonerara · AK Gonerara 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · S Lomani, AK Gonerara | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| C Agafilicaught · I Waqavakatoga · AK Gonerara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · I Waqavakatoga · b AK Gonerara | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Regina Lili'irun out · Tabatha Saville · M Biu 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tabatha Saville | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| F Sisiforun out · S Vuni, MSC Erasito · MT Waqanisau 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · S Vuni, MSC Erasito | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| T Iosefocaught · S Vuni · I Waqavakatoga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Vuni · b I Waqavakatoga | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| bowled · b I Waqavakatoga |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| AF Mapucaught · Tabatha Saville · I Waqavakatoga 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tabatha Saville · b I Waqavakatoga | 29 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 152.63 |
|---|
| Leitu Leongbowled · MT Waqanisau 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b MT Waqanisau | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| O Lefagacaught and bowled · S Sigaiwasa 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b S Sigaiwasa | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| TH Semaunot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| NJM Salimacaught · I Waqavakatoga · S Sigaiwasa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · I Waqavakatoga · b S Sigaiwasa | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK Gonerara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| M Biu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| I Waqavakatoga0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 8.67 | 2 | 0 |
| MT Waqanisau0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 1 |
| S Sigaiwasa0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
| S Kijiana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (C Agafili, 2.2) · 2-5 (A Sootaga, 3.0) · 3-7 (Regina Lili'i, 3.4) · 4-8 (T Iosefo, 4.1) · 5-11 (AF Aoina, 4.4) · 6-46 (F Sisifo, 8.0) · 7-55 (AF Mapu, 9.0) · 8-59 (Leitu Leong, 9.4) · 9-66 (O Lefaga, 10.4) · 10-74 (NJM Salima, 12.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 8/3 |
| 5 | 4 | 12/5 |
| 6 | 9 | 21/5 |
| 7 | 14 | 35/5 |
| 8 | 11 | 46/6 |
| 9 | 9 | 55/7 |
| 10 | 4 | 59/8 |
| 11 | 7 | 66/9 |
| 12 | 7 | 73/9 |
| 13 | 1 | 74/10 |
Tabatha Saville: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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