New ZealandversusWest Indies

18 Oct 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 8 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs128/9 West Indies20.0 overs120/8 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

46%New Zealand54%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than New Zealand (1,645 vs 1,542 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 8 and West Indies won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 44%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 43% to 97% during the match (West Indies: 3% to 57%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.1: EJ Carson to SA Campbelle, SA Campbelle out. New Zealand up from 59% to 71%.
2nd inns 15.6: LMM Tahuhu to DJS Dottin, six by DJS Dottin. West Indies up from 20% to 36%.
2nd inns 16.3: AC Kerr to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. New Zealand up from 68% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand128/9 West Indies120/8

Innings 1

New Zealand

128/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suzie Batesbowled · Karishma Ramharack 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Karishma Ramharack	26	28	1	0	92.86
Georgia Plimmerstumped · Shemaine Campbelle · Afy Fletcher 3 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Shemaine Campbelle · b Afy Fletcher	33	31	3	1	106.45
Amelia Kerrcaught · Karishma Ramharack · Deandra Dottin 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Deandra Dottin	7	11	0	0	63.64
Sophie Devinecaught · Karishma Ramharack · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karishma Ramharack

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	NB
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	0	6.00	0
Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	0	4.00	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	2	7.67	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	1	5.50	0
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	1
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	4	5.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	2	7/0
3	3	10/0
4	6	16/0
5	7	23/0
6	9	32/0
7	9	41/0
8	7	48/0
9	2	50/1
10	4	54/1
11	9	63/1
12	6	69/2
13	12	81/3
14	12	93/3
15	5	98/4
16	4	102/5
17	2	104/7
18	9	113/7
19	9	122/7
20	6	128/9

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