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Women's T20 Quadrangular Series (in Uganda) · 2024/25 · Women
9 Mar 2025 · T20
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 77%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 5% to 78% during the match (Nepal: 22% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janet Mbabazilbw · Puja Mahato 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Puja Mahato | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyirun out · Roma Thapa, I Bist · Riya Sharma 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Roma Thapa, I Bist | 22 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 55.00 |
| Malisa Ariokotcaught · Rubina Chhetri · I Barma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rubina Chhetri · b I Barma | 11 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 45.83 |
| Prosscovia Alakocaught · Rubina Chhetri · I Barma 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rubina Chhetri · b I Barma | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Stephanie Nampiinacaught · Riya Sharma · Puja Mahato 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Riya Sharma · b Puja Mahato | 14 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 56.00 |
| run out · I Barma, Rubina Chhetri |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 80.00 |
| Kevin Awinonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| S Walazacaught · Roma Thapa · Puja Mahato 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roma Thapa · b Puja Mahato | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| P Malemikianot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puja Mahato1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| I Bist0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.1 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.04 | 2 | 0 |
| R Chaudhary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Riya Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| I Barma1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Kabita Joshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-0 (Janet Mbabazi, 0.1) · 2-26 (Malisa Ariokot, 8.3) · 3-33 (Prosscovia Alako, 10.3) · 4-49 (Immaculate Nakisuuyi, 14.5) · 5-58 (Rita Musamali, 16.5) · 6-61 (Stephanie Nampiina, 17.3) · 7-72 (S Walaza, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 31/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 33/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 41/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 43/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 45/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 50/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 56/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 60/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 65/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 70/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 75/7 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
