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ICC Women's T20 World Cup · 2024/25 · Women
3 Oct 2024 · T20
Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 35%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 67%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shathi Ranicaught · Saskia Horley · Katherine Fraser 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saskia Horley · b Katherine Fraser | 29 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 90.63 |
 Murshida Khatuncaught · Katherine Fraser · Kathryn Bryce1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Katherine Fraser · b Kathryn Bryce | 12 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Sobhana Mostarystumped · Sarah Bryce · Olivia Bell 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sarah Bryce · b Olivia Bell | 36 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 94.74 |
| Taj Neharrun out · Abtaha Maqsood, Olivia Bell · Olivia Bell 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Abtaha Maqsood, Olivia Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 |
| caught · Kathryn Bryce · b Saskia Horley |
| 18 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Shorna Aktercaught · Priyanaz Chatterji · Saskia Horley 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Priyanaz Chatterji · b Saskia Horley | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Ritu Monistumped · Sarah Bryce · Saskia Horley 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sarah Bryce · b Saskia Horley | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatunnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 5 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Slater0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Olivia Bell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Saskia Horley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Murshida Khatun, 4.3) · 2-68 (Shathi Rani, 11.5) · 3-69 (Taj Nehar, 12.3) · 4-86 (Sobhana Mostary, 15.1) · 5-97 (Shorna Akter, 17.1) · 6-103 (Ritu Moni, 18.0) · 7-118 (Nigar Sultana, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 35/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 42/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 49/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 55/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 60/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 68/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 72/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 77/3 |
| 15 | 9 | 86/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 91/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 97/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 103/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 112/6 |
| 20 | 7 | 119/7 |
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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