**Kingsmead, Durban**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPretoria Capitals

21 Jan 2026 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 7 wickets

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs170/7 Pretoria Capitals18.3 overs172/3 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 55%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 19% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.6: L Gregory to SD Hope, SD Hope out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 49% to 61%.
2nd inns 7.5: CJ Green to C Esterhuizen, C Esterhuizen out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 43% to 55%.
2nd inns 15.6: CJ Green to B Parsons, six by B Parsons. Pretoria Capitals up from 76% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape170/7 Pretoria Capitals172/3

Innings 1