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Pakistan tour of West Indies · 2025 · Men
12 Aug 2025 · ODI
Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 42%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 75%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Naseem Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Naseem Shah | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Evin Lewiscaught · Mohammad Haris · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Mohammad Haris · b Abrar Ahmed | 37 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 68.52 |
| Keacy Cartylbw · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abrar Ahmed | 17 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 37.78 |
 Shai Hopenot out10 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 120* | 94 | 10 | 5 | 127.66 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Hussain Talat · Saim Ayub 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hussain Talat · b Saim Ayub | 15 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 40 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
 Roston Chasebowled · Naseem Shah3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Naseem Shah | 36 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 124.14 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught and bowled · Mohammad Nawaz 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mohammad Nawaz | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Justin Greavesnot out 4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 43* | 24 | 4 | 2 | 179.17 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 2 | 7.20 | 0 | 1 |
 Hasan Ali1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 60 | 0 | 6.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Hussain Talat0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 3.78 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.67 | 2 | 0 |
1-10 (Brandon King, 2.3) · 2-57 (Evin Lewis, 14.0) · 3-68 (Keacy Carty, 19.1) · 4-113 (Sherfane Rutherford, 30.3) · 5-177 (Roston Chase, 40.3) · 6-184 (Gudakesh Motie, 41.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 16/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 27/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 36/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 41/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 42/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 56/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 62/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 66/2 |
| 18 | 0 | 66/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 69/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 74/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 77/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 82/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 88/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 95/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 101/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 105/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 107/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 110/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 115/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 118/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 126/4 |
| 34 | 9 | 135/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 137/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 145/4 |
| 37 | 10 | 155/4 |
| 38 | 7 | 162/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 169/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 175/4 |
| 41 | 3 | 178/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 185/6 |
| 43 | 9 | 194/6 |
| 44 | 15 | 209/6 |
| 45 | 18 | 227/6 |
| 46 | 7 | 234/6 |
| 47 | 8 | 242/6 |
| 48 | 18 | 260/6 |
| 49 | 21 | 281/6 |
| 50 | 13 | 294/6 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Hasan Ali: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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