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Photo: Timothy Barton (timtranslates.com)
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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England tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
14 Nov 2024 · T20
Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 37%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (England: 59% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evin Lewiscaught · Jofra Archer · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jofra Archer · b Saqib Mahmood | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
 Shai Hoperun out · Jacob Bethell · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jacob Bethell | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Nicolas Pooranbowled · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jofra Archer | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 175.00 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Jamie Overton · Saqib Mahmood1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Saqib Mahmood | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
| caught · Dan Mousley · b Saqib Mahmood |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Jacob Bethell · Jamie Overton 3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Jamie Overton | 54 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 131.71 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdlbw · Jamie Overton 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Jamie Overton | 30 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 107.14 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Will Jacks · Jamie Overton 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Jamie Overton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 21* | 19 | 3 | 0 | 110.53 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseinnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 8* | 5 | 0 | 1 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Saqib Mahmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Rehan Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Dan Mousley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Shai Hope, 0.4) · 2-13 (Evin Lewis, 1.3) · 3-17 (Nicolas Pooran, 2.5) · 4-21 (Roston Chase, 3.2) · 5-37 (Shimron Hetmyer, 5.4) · 6-110 (Romario Shepherd, 15.1) · 7-110 (Gudakesh Motie, 15.4) · 8-113 (Rovman Powell, 17.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 13/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 17/3 |
| 4 | 9 | 26/4 |
| 5 | 8 | 34/4 |
| 6 | 5 | 39/5 |
| 7 | 7 | 46/5 |
| 8 | 4 | 50/5 |
| 9 | 12 | 62/5 |
| 10 | 14 | 76/5 |
| 11 | 7 | 83/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 86/5 |
| 13 | 10 | 96/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 98/5 |
| 15 | 12 | 110/5 |
| 16 | 1 | 111/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 113/7 |
| 18 | 9 | 122/8 |
| 19 | 13 | 135/8 |
| 20 | 10 | 145/8 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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