BahrainversusOman

5 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 5 wickets

Bahrain20.0 overs92/9 Oman14.5 overs95/5 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

23%Bahrain77%Oman

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Bahrain (1,371 vs 1,267 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Oman won 2 and Bahrain won 0
Oman are playing at home in Oman

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 24%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (Oman: 71% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: Alifiya Sayed to Poorvaja Jagdeesha, Poorvaja Jagdeesha out. Oman up from 79% to 84%.
7.5: J Gunasekar to TI Gajanayake, TI Gajanayake out. Oman up from 74% to 78%.
11.4: J Gunasekar to Ashwini Govinda, Ashwini Govinda out. Oman up from 76% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain92/9 Oman95/5

Innings 1

Bahrain

92/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
TI Gajanayakecaught and bowled · J Gunasekar 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b J Gunasekar	13	22	1	0	59.09
Poorvaja Jagdeeshacaught · Sameera Khan · Alifiya Sayed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sameera Khan · b Alifiya Sayed	2	8	0	0	25.00
Deepika Rasangikacaught and bowled · A Dcosta 8 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b A Dcosta	43	30	8	0	143.33
Ashwini Govindabowled · J Gunasekar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b J Gunasekar	1	14	0	0	7.14
P Shettyrun out · J Gunasekar · Sameera Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · J Gunasekar	6	13	0	0	46.15

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Alifiya Sayed0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	1	3.75	3	0
A Dcosta1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	19	1	4.75	0	0
J Gunasekar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	0	0
PE Mendonca0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	1	0
Sameera Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	6	2	2.00	1	0
Fiza0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	2	3/0
3	3	6/1
4	11	17/1
5	5	22/1
6	6	28/1
7	8	36/1
8	6	42/2
9	13	55/2
10	6	61/2
11	0	61/2
12	1	62/3
13	6	68/4
14	3	71/4
15	2	73/4
16	3	76/5
17	3	79/7
18	3	82/8
19	1	83/9
20	9	92/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.