West IndiesversusEngland

9 Nov 2024 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 8 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs182/9 England16.5 overs183/2 Kensington Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

57%West Indies43%England

Why

West Indies are playing at home in Barbados
On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than England (1,651 vs 1,639 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 56%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (England: 26% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.2: AU Rashid to R Powell, R Powell out. England up from 44% to 57%.
8.2: AU Rashid to SE Rutherford, SE Rutherford out. England up from 53% to 69%.
2nd inns 6.4: R Shepherd to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. West Indies up from 37% to 49%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies182/9 England183/2

Innings 1

West Indies

182/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Brandon Kingcaught · Jamie Overton · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jamie Overton · b Saqib Mahmood	3	5	0	0	60.00
Evin Lewiscaught · Jacob Bethell · Saqib Mahmood 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jacob Bethell · b Saqib Mahmood	13	10	2	0	130.00
Nicolas Poorancaught · Jos Buttler · Jamie Overton 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Jos Buttler · b Jamie Overton	38	29	2	3	131.03
Shimron Hetmyercaught · Philip Salt · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Philip Salt · b Saqib Mahmood	0	1	0	0	0.00
Rovman Powellcaught · Jamie Overton · Adil Rashid1 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Reece Topley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	26	0	9.75	0
Saqib Mahmood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	4	8.50	1
Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	27	1	8.10	1
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	3	8.00	0
Dan Mousley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	0	7.00	0
Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	0	10.33	1
Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	1	10.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/1
3	6	17/1
4	6	23/3
5	16	39/3
6	19	58/3
7	3	61/4
8	7	68/4
9	3	71/5
10	10	81/5
11	15	96/5
12	4	100/5
13	9	109/6
14	8	117/7
15	12	129/8
16	12	141/8
17	11	152/8
18	10	162/8
19	4	166/9
20	16	182/9

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