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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2026 · Men
28 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Cameroon started on 22%; Cameroon batted first.
Cameroon's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (Kenya: 78% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BN Toubebowled · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| I Tchakoucaught · Sukhdeep Singh · Peter Langat 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b Peter Langat | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| AB Mengoumoubowled · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
| DB Loiccaught · Rakep Patel · Peter Langat 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rakep Patel · b Peter Langat | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| VF Bomnyuycaught · Francis Mutua · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Francis Mutua · b Sachin Gill | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| bowled · b Sachin Gill |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| AN Toubelbw · Shem Ngoche 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Shem Ngoche | 28 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| RD Atanganalbw · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sachin Gill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| AN Aminoubowled · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| FJ Mpegnabowled · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| H Kinganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sachin Gill1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 1.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Peter Langat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Francis Mutua0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Vishil Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (BN Toube, 0.1) · 2-3 (I Tchakou, 1.2) · 3-3 (DB Loic, 1.3) · 4-4 (VF Bomnyuy, 2.3) · 5-4 (JB Abega, 2.4) · 6-10 (AB Mengoumou, 4.4) · 7-10 (RD Atangana, 5.0) · 8-16 (AN Aminou, 6.2) · 9-18 (FJ Mpegna, 6.5) · 10-42 (AN Toube, 11.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/3 |
| 3 | 0 | 4/5 |
| 4 | 2 | 6/5 |
| 5 | 4 | 10/7 |
| 6 | 6 | 16/7 |
| 7 | 2 | 18/9 |
| 8 | 2 | 20/9 |
| 9 | 11 | 31/9 |
| 10 | 6 | 37/9 |
| 11 | 5 | 42/10 |
Vishil Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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