MalawiversusBahrain

25 Jul 2025 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 8 wickets

Malawi20.0 overs113/9 Bahrain16.3 overs114/2 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

8%Malawi92%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Malawi (1,657 vs 1,341 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 5 and Malawi won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malawi started on 7%; Malawi batted first.

Malawi’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Malawi's chances ranged from 0% to 15% during the match (Bahrain: 85% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: Ali Dawood to D Kansonkho, 1 run to D Kansonkho. Malawi up from 10% to 13%.
7.4: Abdul Majid Abbasi to D Kansonkho, D Kansonkho out. Bahrain up from 87% to 90%.
9.3: Abdul Majid Abbasi to SY Nihute, SY Nihute out. Bahrain up from 88% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malawi113/9 Bahrain114/2

Innings 1

Malawi

113/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malawi batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Limdawalabowled · Imran Khan (5) 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Imran Khan (5)	15	10	3	0	150.00
Sami Sohailcaught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · Rizwan Butt 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · b Rizwan Butt	37	33	4	1	112.12
D Kansonkhobowled · Abdul Majeed 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Abdul Majeed	14	22	2	0	63.64
SY Nihutecaught · Junaid Aziz · Abdul Majeed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Junaid Aziz · b Abdul Majeed	5	8	0	0	62.50
Kazim Somanistumped · Ahmer Bin Nasir · Asif Ali 0 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Ahmer Bin Nasir · b Asif Ali	9	11	0	1	81.82

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ali Dawood0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	25	2	6.25	7	1
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	0	0
Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	1	0
Abdul Majeed1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	2	4.00	1	0
Asif Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	1	4.33	0	0
SS Shukla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	5	14/0
3	12	26/0
4	7	33/0
5	4	37/0
6	4	41/0
7	7	48/0
8	4	52/1
9	5	57/1
10	5	62/2
11	8	70/2
12	7	77/2
13	1	78/3
14	10	88/4
15	7	95/6
16	3	98/6
17	2	100/7
18	6	106/7
19	4	110/8
20	3	113/9

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