FranceversusPortugal

5 Apr 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Portugal won by 6 wickets

France19.1 overs128/10 Portugal15.0 overs129/4 Santarem Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Portugal more likely to win

36%France64%Portugal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Portugal rate stronger than France (1,530 vs 1,432 on our results rating)
Portugal are playing at home in Portugal
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, France won 1 and Portugal won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

France started on 35%; France batted first.

France’s chance of winning (%) · Portugal is the rest

France's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Portugal: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: U Shantu to G Mckeon, G Mckeon out. Portugal up from 67% to 77%.
1.5: J Martins to Noman Amjad, Noman Amjad out. Portugal up from 68% to 77%.
9.5: C Greenshields to Zada Sher, Zada Sher out. Portugal up from 69% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

France128/10 Portugal129/4

Innings 1

France

128/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

France batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
G Mckeonbowled · U Shantu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b U Shantu	0	4	0	0	0.00
Nasibullah Arabbowled · J Martins 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b J Martins	6	7	1	0	85.71
Noman Amjadcaught · C Potgieter · J Martins 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Potgieter · b J Martins	12	6	3	0	200.00
C Robertsnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes	not out	44*	45	3	0	97.78
Zada Shercaught · R Hashu · C Greenshields 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · R Hashu · b C Greenshields	30	22	3	1	136.36
Jamshid Nasiribowled · C Greenshields0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
U Shantu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	2	3.67	0	0
J Martins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	2	9.25	0	0
Sirajullah Khadim0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0	1
Edward Fleming0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	0	7.25	0	0
C Greenshields0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	2	0
R Hashu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.1	14	2	6.46	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	10	14/2
3	4	18/2
4	4	22/3
5	7	29/3
6	7	36/3
7	4	40/3
8	16	56/3
9	9	65/3
10	4	69/4
11	5	74/4
12	6	80/4
13	4	84/4
14	5	89/5
15	11	100/5
16	13	113/6
17	9	122/7
18	3	125/8
19	3	128/9
20	0	128/10

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