Birmingham BearsversusWorcestershire

11 Jul 2025 · T20

New Road, Worcester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 23 runs

Birmingham Bears19.5 overs176/10 Worcestershire19.3 overs153/10 New Road, Worcester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 54%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Worcestershire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Worcestershire: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.3: Hasan Ali to BL D'Oliveira, BL D'Oliveira out. Birmingham Bears up from 59% to 71%.
2nd inns 13.2: DR Briggs to BJ Dwarshuis, BJ Dwarshuis out. Birmingham Bears up from 67% to 81%.
2nd inns 14.2: CN Miles to HJ Cullen, HJ Cullen out. Birmingham Bears up from 81% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears176/10 Worcestershire153/10

Innings 1