BelgiumversusSwitzerland

29 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Switzerland won by 8 wickets

Belgium16.3 overs56/10 Switzerland10.4 overs57/2 Stars Arena Hofstade, Zemst ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Switzerland more likely to win

34%Belgium66%Switzerland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Switzerland rate stronger than Belgium (1,245 vs 1,155 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Switzerland won 2 and Belgium won 0
Belgium are playing at home in Belgium

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Belgium started on 30%; Belgium batted first.

Belgium’s chance of winning (%) · Switzerland is the rest

Belgium's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Switzerland: 63% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: Naina Saju to S Kaneria, S Kaneria out. Switzerland up from 63% to 70%.
4.6: D Medagoda to V Redkar, V Redkar out. Switzerland up from 68% to 74%.
9.2: Sejal Vinod to A Ilahi, A Ilahi out. Switzerland up from 83% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Belgium56/10 Switzerland57/2

Innings 1

Belgium

56/1016.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Belgium batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Kaneriacaught · F Kuenburg · Naina Saju 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · F Kuenburg · b Naina Saju	10	13	1	0	76.92
Aashita Guptalbw · Sejal Vinod 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sejal Vinod	13	18	2	0	72.22
V Redkarcaught · M Holmes · D Medagoda 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Holmes · b D Medagoda	0	6	0	0	0.00
RA Listerbowled · M Holmes 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Holmes	5	24	0	0	20.83
S Bhandaricaught · Meghna Rajan · Sejal Vinod 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Meghna Rajan · b Sejal Vinod	0	1	0	0	0.00
A Ilahi

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Naina Saju0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	14	1	7.00	2	1
Meghna Rajan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	4	0	1.33	0	0
D Medagoda0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	11	2	4.40	5	0
Sejal Vinod0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	11	3	3.67	4	1
Metty Fernandes0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	4	0
Saranya Kotha1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	4	3	2.00	2	0
M Holmes0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	4	1	2.00	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	1	8/0
3	7	15/1
4	1	16/1
5	9	25/2
6	2	27/2
7	2	29/2
8	7	36/4
9	3	39/4
10	2	41/5
11	5	46/5
12	2	48/5
13	0	48/7
14	1	49/8
15	4	53/9
16	3	56/9
17	0	56/10

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