**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusPaarl Royals

10 Jan 2026 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 21 runs

Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs138/9 Paarl Royals20.0 overs117/6 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 38%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 10% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.1: KA Maharaj to RA Herman, RA Herman out. Pretoria Capitals up from 33% to 49%.
2nd inns 15.6: L Ngidi to DA Miller, six by DA Miller. Paarl Royals up from 37% to 56%.
2nd inns 16.1: KA Maharaj to Sikandar Raza, Sikandar Raza out. Pretoria Capitals up from 44% to 63%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals138/9 Paarl Royals117/6

Innings 1