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Pakistan Women tour of South Africa · 2025/26 · Women
1 Mar 2026 · ODI
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 14%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadaf Shamascaught and bowled · Suné Luus 16 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Suné Luus | 97 | 82 | 16 | 1 | 118.29 |
| Gull Ferozacaught · Nadine de Klerk · Annerie Dercksen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Annerie Dercksen | 13 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 130.00 |
| Sidra Ameenbowled · Suné Luus 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Suné Luus | 41 | 64 | 4 | 0 | 64.06 |
| Ayesha Zafarbowled · Nonkululeko Mlaba 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 24 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Najiha Alvicaught · Suné Luus · Chloe Tryon 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Chloe Tryon | 36 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 78.26 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 13% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 87%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · N Shangase · b Suné Luus |
| 4 |
| 20 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.00 |
| Fatima Sanacaught · Suné Luus · Ayanda Hlubi 3 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Ayanda Hlubi | 60 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 146.34 |
|---|
| Syeda Aroob Shahnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Tasmia Rubabcaught · Tumi Sekhukhune · Nonkululeko Mlaba 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tumi Sekhukhune · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 10 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayanda Hlubi0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 9.40 | 1 | 2 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 5.67 | 2 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 5.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Tumi Sekhukhune0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 9.75 | 2 | 2 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Gull Feroza, 5.1) · 2-161 (Sadaf Shamas, 25.0) · 3-164 (Sidra Ameen, 26.1) · 4-203 (Ayesha Zafar, 34.1) · 5-216 (Umm-e-Hani, 39.0) · 6-281 (Najiha Alvi, 47.3) · 7-298 (Fatima Sana, 49.0) · 8-305 (Tasmia Rubab, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 31/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 35/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 44/1 |
| 8 | 14 | 58/1 |
| 9 | 13 | 71/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 77/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 79/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 87/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 93/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 100/1 |
| 15 | 16 | 116/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 121/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 127/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 131/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 133/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 137/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 140/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 145/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 147/1 |
| 24 | 8 | 155/1 |
| 25 | 6 | 161/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 164/2 |
| 27 | 1 | 165/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 169/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 174/3 |
| 30 | 11 | 185/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 189/3 |
| 32 | 5 | 194/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 199/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 203/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 205/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 209/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 212/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 215/4 |
| 39 | 1 | 216/5 |
| 40 | 2 | 218/5 |
| 41 | 10 | 228/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 232/5 |
| 43 | 12 | 244/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 249/5 |
| 45 | 11 | 260/5 |
| 46 | 9 | 269/5 |
| 47 | 10 | 279/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 282/6 |
| 49 | 16 | 298/7 |
| 50 | 8 | 306/8 |
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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