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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B · 2026 · Men
12 Jul 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Belgium more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Belgium started on 64%; Belgium batted first.
Belgium's chances ranged from 2% to 68% during the match (Romania: 32% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Razacaught · Avishka Iroshan · Irfan Ringku 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Avishka Iroshan · b Irfan Ringku | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aziz Mohammadcaught · Md Ariyan · J Khadka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Md Ariyan · b J Khadka | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| B Niazcaught · Md Ariyan · Irfan Ringku 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Md Ariyan · b Irfan Ringku | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Omid Mailk Khelcaught · Md Ariyan · Rameez Khan 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Md Ariyan · b Rameez Khan | 22 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Sheraz Sheikhcaught · Avishka Iroshan · M Koli 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Avishka Iroshan · b M Koli | 19 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 158.33 |
| bowled · b Irfan Ringku |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Saber Zakhilcaught · V Saini · Rameez Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · V Saini · b Rameez Khan | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Sajad Ahmadzaicaught · T Sandaruwan · Rameez Khan 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · T Sandaruwan · b Rameez Khan | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Zaki Ul Hassannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 20 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Khalid Ahmadicaught · T Sandaruwan · Rameez Khan 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · T Sandaruwan · b Rameez Khan | 19 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 146.15 |
|---|
| R Thapliyalcaught · Rameez Khan · J Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rameez Khan · b J Fernando | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Khadka0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Irfan Ringku0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| M Koli0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| V Saini0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Rameez Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| J Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (A Raza, 1.2) · 2-11 (B Niaz, 1.5) · 3-12 (Aziz Mohammad, 2.4) · 4-39 (Sheraz Sheikh, 5.5) · 5-51 (Shaheryar Butt, 7.5) · 6-62 (Omid Mailk Khel, 10.0) · 7-67 (Saber Zakhil, 11.2) · 8-82 (Sajad Ahmadzai, 13.5) · 9-102 (Khalid Ahmadi, 17.2) · 10-107 (R Thapliyal, 18.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 12/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 16/3 |
| 4 | 8 | 24/3 |
| 5 | 11 | 35/3 |
| 6 | 8 | 43/4 |
| 7 | 2 | 45/4 |
| 8 | 7 | 52/5 |
| 9 | 6 | 58/5 |
| 10 | 4 | 62/6 |
| 11 | 5 | 67/6 |
| 12 | 2 | 69/7 |
| 13 | 3 | 72/7 |
| 14 | 10 | 82/8 |
| 15 | 2 | 84/8 |
| 16 | 11 | 95/8 |
| 17 | 1 | 96/8 |
| 18 | 10 | 106/9 |
| 19 | 1 | 107/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.