**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

NepalversusPakistan

21 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 9 wickets

Nepal20.0 overs108/6 Pakistan11.5 overs110/1 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

68%Nepal32%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Pakistan (1,546 vs 1,418 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 65%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 71% during the match (Pakistan: 29% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Fatima Sana to Samjhana Khadka, Samjhana Khadka out. Pakistan up from 32% to 41%.
4.6: Sadia Iqbal to I Barma, I Barma out. Pakistan up from 38% to 46%.
9.2: Syeda Aroob Shah to SR Magar, RC Belbashi out. Pakistan up from 52% to 59%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal108/6 Pakistan110/1

Innings 1

Nepal

108/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Samjhana Khadkacaught · Nashra Sandhu · Fatima Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Fatima Sana	4	5	1	0	80.00
Sita Rana Magarrun out · Muneeba Ali, Tuba Hassan · Umaima Sohail 3 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Muneeba Ali, Tuba Hassan	26	30	3	0	86.67
K Kunwarcaught · Muneeba Ali · Sadia Iqbal 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muneeba Ali · b Sadia Iqbal	13	13	3	0	100.00
I Barmabowled · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sadia Iqbal	0	2	0	0	0.00
Rubina Chhetri

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	1	6.00	0
Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	0
Umaima Sohail1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	20	0	6.67	0
Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	0	3.50	0
Syeda Aroob Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	0	6.25	1
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	5	9/1
3	9	18/1
4	11	29/1
5	1	30/3
6	0	30/3
7	2	32/3
8	2	34/3
9	6	40/3
10	3	43/4
11	4	47/4
12	7	54/4
13	2	56/4
14	9	65/5
15	3	68/5
16	6	74/5
17	10	84/5
18	2	86/5
19	13	99/5
20	9	108/6

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