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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 2 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
26 May 2025 · T20
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Spain started on 43%; Spain batted first.
Spain's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Jersey: 47% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Hartleycaught · Aimee Aikenhead · Florence Tanguy 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aimee Aikenhead · b Florence Tanguy | 41 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 107.89 |
| A Davidson-Solercaught · Analise Merritt · Chloe Greechan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Analise Merritt · b Chloe Greechan | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
| NH Berejobowled · Analise Merritt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Analise Merritt | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
| A Brown-Carrerabowled · O Bastin 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b O Bastin | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Amelia Jonesrun out · Mia Maguire · Grace Wetherall 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mia Maguire | 14 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 51.85 |
| run out · Florence Tanguy, Mia Maguire |
| 15 |
| 19 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 78.95 |
| Elspeth Fowlerrun out · Mia Maguire · Grace Wetherall 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mia Maguire | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| P Chilongianot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| S Basharatnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Greechan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Grace Wetherall0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Analise Merritt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Florence Tanguy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| O Bastin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (A Davidson-Soler, 2.4) · 2-48 (NH Berejo, 7.5) · 3-58 (Alexis Hartley, 10.4) · 4-60 (A Brown-Carrera, 12.0) · 5-84 (Uswa Syed, 17.2) · 6-92 (Elspeth Fowler, 19.3) · 7-92 (Amelia Jones, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 42/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 48/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 49/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 55/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 64/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 67/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 70/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 79/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 83/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 86/5 |
| 19 | 3 | 89/5 |
| 20 | 5 | 94/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.