BangladeshversusAustralia

31 Mar 2024 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 10 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs126/4 Australia13.0 overs127/0 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

15%Bangladesh85%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,733 vs 1,467 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 2 and Bangladesh won 0
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 14%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Australia: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: S Molineux to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Australia up from 86% to 90%.
15.3: GM Harris to Fahima Khatun, six by Fahima Khatun. Bangladesh up from 26% to 30%.
2nd inns 4.6: Nahida Akter to AJ Healy, six by AJ Healy. Australia up from 83% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh126/4 Australia127/0

Innings 1

Bangladesh

126/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Annabel Sutherland · Sophie Molineux 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Sophie Molineux	0	1	0	0	0.00
Murshida Khatunlbw · Georgia Wareham 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Georgia Wareham	20	27	1	0	74.07
Sobhana Mostarybowled · Tayla Vlaeminck 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Tayla Vlaeminck	0	8	0	0	0.00
Nigar Sultananot out 7 fours · 0 sixes	not out	63*	64	7	0	98.44

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sophie Molineux1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	25	2	6.25	1	0
Tayla Vlaeminck0 maidens · 7 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	0	30	1	7.50	7	2
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	0	5.25	0	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	1	4.50	0	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	3	0
Grace Harris0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	18	0	9.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	2	2/2
3	3	5/2
4	5	10/2
5	5	15/2
6	13	28/2
7	5	33/2
8	12	45/2
9	6	51/2
10	7	58/2
11	5	63/3
12	10	73/3
13	3	76/3
14	5	81/3
15	6	87/3
16	14	101/3
17	3	104/3
18	5	109/3
19	7	116/3
20	10	126/4

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