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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
5 Nov 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 49%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Oman: 47% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikramjit Singhbowled · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed | 6 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Max O'Dowdlbw · Shakeel Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shakeel Ahmed | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Noah Croesbowled · Wasim Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wasim Ali | 29 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 67.44 |
| Scott Edwardscaught · Wasim Ali · Aamir Kaleem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wasim Ali · b Aamir Kaleem | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Bas de Leedelbw · Shakeel Ahmed5 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Shakeel Ahmed | 51 | 89 | 5 | 1 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 57.30 |
| Shariz Ahmadlbw · Shakeel Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shakeel Ahmed | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Ryan Kleinbowled · Samay Shrivastava 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Samay Shrivastava | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwecaught · Hammad Mirza · Aamir Kaleem0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammad Mirza · b Aamir Kaleem | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
 Timm van der Gugtennot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 13 | 1 | 0 | 92.31 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttrun out · Jatinder Singh, Aamir Kaleem · Samay Shrivastava 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jatinder Singh, Aamir Kaleem | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Paul van Meekerenlbw · Samay Shrivastava 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Samay Shrivastava | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muzahir Raza2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shakeel Ahmed2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 2.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 2.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Aamir Kaleem1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 2.70 | 3 | 0 |
| Samay Shrivastava0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 5.68 | 1 | 0 |
| Wasim Ali0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-8 (Max O'Dowd, 4.0) · 2-21 (Vikramjit Singh, 9.4) · 3-22 (Scott Edwards, 10.1) · 4-62 (Noah Croes, 21.1) · 5-109 (Shariz Ahmad, 32.3) · 6-114 (Bas de Leede, 34.5) · 7-117 (Ryan Klein, 36.1) · 8-123 (Roelof van der Merwe, 37.3) · 9-127 (Aryan Dutt, 38.3) · 10-132 (Paul van Meekeren, 40.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 3/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 11/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 16/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 18/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 22/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 24/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 25/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 30/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 38/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 39/3 |
| 16 | 7 | 46/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 54/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 58/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 62/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 62/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 65/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 69/4 |
| 24 | 11 | 80/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 86/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 87/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 88/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 92/4 |
| 29 | 10 | 102/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 104/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 109/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 109/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 114/5 |
| 35 | 0 | 114/6 |
| 36 | 3 | 117/6 |
| 37 | 6 | 123/7 |
| 38 | 1 | 124/8 |
| 39 | 5 | 129/9 |
| 40 | 2 | 131/9 |
| 41 | 1 | 132/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
