**Edgbaston**
Photo: Will Noakes
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

Birmingham BearsversusDerbyshire

14 Jul 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 44 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs198/2 Derbyshire19.2 overs154/10 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 63%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

4.1: Mohammad Amir to AL Davies, AL Davies out. Derbyshire up from 38% to 49%.
2nd inns 6.1: DR Briggs to DL Lloyd, DL Lloyd out. Birmingham Bears up from 66% to 78%.
2nd inns 11.6: JB Lintott to SR Patel, SR Patel out. Birmingham Bears up from 71% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears198/2 Derbyshire154/10

Innings 1