Adelaide StrikersversusPerth Scorchers

19 Nov 2024 · T20

Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 30 runs

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs169/6 Perth Scorchers20.0 overs139/8 Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 54%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Perth Scorchers is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 0% to 46%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: ML Schutt to M Darke, M Darke out. Adelaide Strikers up from 69% to 80%.
2nd inns 2.3: ML Schutt to D Hemalatha, D Hemalatha out. Adelaide Strikers up from 76% to 85%.
2nd inns 2.4: ML Schutt to AL Edgar, AL Edgar out. Adelaide Strikers up from 85% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers169/6 Perth Scorchers139/8

Innings 1