EnglandversusWest Indies

16 Nov 2024 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 5 wickets

England20.0 overs218/5 West Indies19.0 overs221/5 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

65%England35%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than West Indies (1,704 vs 1,586 on our results rating)
West Indies are playing at home in Saint Lucia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and West Indies won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 62%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

England's chances ranged from 2% to 93% during the match (West Indies: 7% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.6: LS Livingstone to E Lewis, six by E Lewis. West Indies up from 59% to 70%.
2nd inns 9.3: Rehan Ahmed to N Pooran, N Pooran out. England up from 30% to 43%.
2nd inns 18.5: DR Mousley to SE Rutherford, six by SE Rutherford. West Indies up from 87% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England218/5 West Indies221/5

Innings 1

England

218/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltcaught · Nicolas Pooran · Roston Chase 5 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Roston Chase	55	35	5	4	157.14
Will Jackscaught · Nicolas Pooran · Alzarri Joseph 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Alzarri Joseph	25	12	1	2	208.33
Jos Buttlercaught · Roston Chase · Gudakesh Motie 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Roston Chase · b Gudakesh Motie	38	23	2	3	165.22
Jacob Bethellnot out 4 fours · 5 sixes	not out	62*	32	4

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Obed McCoy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	0	10.00	1	0
Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	0	1
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	40	0	13.33	0	0
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	1	0
Rovman Powell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0
Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	1	11.75	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	3	15/0
3	18	33/0
4	10	43/0
5	11	54/1
6	9	63/1
7	14	77/1
8	11	88/1
9	13	101/1
10	4	105/2
11	5	110/2
12	13	123/2
13	8	131/3
14	11	142/3
15	13	155/4
16	9	164/4
17	19	183/4
18	11	194/4
19	12	206/4
20	12	218/5

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