NepalversusMalaysia

4 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 167 runs

Nepal20.0 overs275/7 Malaysia20.0 overs108/9 Singapore National Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

59%Nepal41%Malaysia

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 10 and Malaysia won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Nepal (1,669 vs 1,605 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 56%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Syed Aziz to K Bhurtel, four by K Bhurtel. Nepal up from 57% to 60%.
0.3: Syed Aziz to K Bhurtel, four by K Bhurtel. Nepal up from 59% to 63%.
3.1: Pavandeep Singh to Aasif Sheikh, six by Aasif Sheikh. Nepal up from 77% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal275/7 Malaysia108/9

Innings 1

Nepal

275/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Pavandeep Singh · Syed Aziz 14 fours · 8 sixes	caught · Pavandeep Singh · b Syed Aziz	126	54	14	8	233.33
Aasif Sheikhcaught · Syed Aziz · Virandeep Singh 5 fours · 7 sixes	caught · Syed Aziz · b Virandeep Singh	68	24	5	7	283.33
Sundeep Joracaught · Sharvin Muniandy · Vijay Unni 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Sharvin Muniandy · b Vijay Unni	15	14	0	2	107.14
Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Virandeep Singh · Vijay Unni 1 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Virandeep Singh · b Vijay Unni	31	11	1	4	281.82

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Syed Aziz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	2	10.25	1	0
Pavandeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	62	0	20.67	2	1
Muhammad Akram0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	61	0	15.25	2	0
Azri Azhar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	27	0	27.00	2	0
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	3	5.50	0	0
Rahim Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	22	0	22.00	0	0
Vijay Unni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	40	2	13.33	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	20	29/0
3	8	37/0
4	19	56/0
5	12	68/0
6	27	95/0
7	6	101/0
8	21	122/0
9	12	134/1
10	22	156/1
11	1	157/1
12	23	180/1
13	2	182/2
14	11	193/2
15	21	214/2
16	17	231/2
17	17	248/3
18	13	261/4
19	3	264/6
20	11	275/7

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