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Australia Women tour of India · 2025/26 · Women
14 Sept 2025 · ODI
Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, New Chandigarh · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 24%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalcaught · Ellyse Perry · Alana King 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ellyse Perry · b Alana King | 64 | 96 | 6 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Smriti Mandhanarun out · Phoebe Litchfield · Annabel Sutherland6 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Phoebe Litchfield | 58 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 92.06 |
| Harleen Deolstumped · Alyssa Healy · Megan Schutt 4 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Alyssa Healy · b Megan Schutt | 54 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 94.74 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurlbw · Annabel Sutherland0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Annabel Sutherland | 11 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 122.22 |
India's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Australia: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Alana King · b Tahlia McGrath |
| 18 |
| 26 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 69.23 |
 Richa Ghoshcaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Megan Schutt2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Megan Schutt | 25 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 125.00 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmanot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 16 | 2 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
 Radha Yadavcaught · Ellyse Perry · Kim Garth3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ellyse Perry · b Kim Garth | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 135.71 |
|---|
| Shree Charaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Megan Schutt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 6.43 | 1 | 0 |
 Kim Garth1 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 56 | 1 | 5.60 | 2 | 1 |
 Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Ellyse Perry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 5.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 5.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Alana King1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 2 |
1-114 (Smriti Mandhana, 21.3) · 2-142 (Pratika Rawal, 30.2) · 3-161 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 33.4) · 4-207 (Harleen Deol, 40.1) · 5-232 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 43.0) · 6-244 (Richa Ghosh, 45.4) · 7-274 (Radha Yadav, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 38/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 51/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 52/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 55/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 63/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 68/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 75/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 82/0 |
| 15 | 2 | 84/0 |
| 16 | 2 | 86/0 |
| 17 | 8 | 94/0 |
| 18 | 6 | 100/0 |
| 19 | 4 | 104/0 |
| 20 | 2 | 106/0 |
| 21 | 1 | 107/0 |
| 22 | 9 | 116/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 120/1 |
| 24 | 0 | 120/1 |
| 25 | 9 | 129/1 |
| 26 | 2 | 131/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 134/1 |
| 28 | 6 | 140/1 |
| 29 | 0 | 140/1 |
| 30 | 2 | 142/1 |
| 31 | 2 | 144/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 150/2 |
| 33 | 5 | 155/2 |
| 34 | 8 | 163/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 168/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 179/3 |
| 37 | 13 | 192/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 196/3 |
| 39 | 8 | 204/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 207/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 211/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 217/4 |
| 43 | 15 | 232/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 235/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 239/5 |
| 46 | 7 | 246/6 |
| 47 | 6 | 252/6 |
| 48 | 10 | 262/6 |
| 49 | 8 | 270/6 |
| 50 | 11 | 281/7 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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