**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusPaarl Royals

15 Jan 2026 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 6 wickets

Pretoria Capitals19.1 overs127/10 Paarl Royals15.1 overs128/4 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 47%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Paarl Royals: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: OEG Baartman to C Esterhuizen, C Esterhuizen out. Paarl Royals up from 38% to 49%.
3.2: OEG Baartman to JM Cox, JM Cox out. Paarl Royals up from 49% to 61%.
6.5: BC Fortuin to WJ Lubbe, WJ Lubbe out. Paarl Royals up from 65% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals127/10 Paarl Royals128/4

Innings 1