**Kingsmead, Durban**
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SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusDurban's Super Giants

17 Jan 2025 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 58 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs165/5 Durban's Super Giants18.1 overs107/10 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 46%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Durban's Super Giants is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Durban's Super Giants: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.5: M Jansen to MP Breetzke, B Parsons out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 31% to 43%.
2nd inns 7.5: LA Dawson to KS Williamson, KS Williamson out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 47% to 59%.
2nd inns 9.3: LA Dawson to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 66% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape165/5 Durban's Super Giants107/10

Innings 1