AustriaversusNorway

12 Oct 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Norway won by 1 wickets

Austria19.5 overs91/10 Norway20.0 overs92/9 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

59%Austria41%Norway

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Norway (1,322 vs 1,265 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Austria started on 57%; Austria batted first.

Austria’s chance of winning (%) · Norway is the rest

Austria's chances ranged from 5% to 59% during the match (Norway: 41% to 95%).

Biggest swings

7.3: VB Viyala to A Nookala, A Nookala out. Norway up from 68% to 79%.
2nd inns 19.5: P Sabu to Prachi Kumari, Prachi Kumari out. Austria up from 16% to 29%.
2nd inns 19.6: P Sabu to Alina Aslam, 1 run to Alina Aslam. Norway up from 71% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Austria91/10 Norway92/9

Innings 1

Austria

91/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Austria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
P Sabubowled · VB Viyala 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b VB Viyala	13	16	1	0	81.25
H Bhullarrun out · Mirab Razwan, VB Viyala · Alina Aslam 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Mirab Razwan, VB Viyala	1	6	0	0	16.67
Andrea-Mae Zepedacaught · Mirab Razwan · Nayab Razwan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mirab Razwan · b Nayab Razwan	8	15	1	0	53.33
Sheetal Bhardwajbowled · Prachi Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Prachi Kumari	6	21	0	0	28.57
SM Ariyasinghagelbw · Nayab Razwan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nayab Razwan	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Alina Aslam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	1
R Immadi0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	17	1	4.43	8
VB Viyala0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	2	5.50	3
Nayab Razwan0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	10	2	3.33	4
P Agrawal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	0	3.67	0
Mirab Razwan0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	7
Prachi Kumari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/0
3	5	12/1
4	2	14/1
5	8	22/1
6	6	28/2
7	2	30/4
8	5	35/5
9	3	38/6
10	9	47/6
11	4	51/6
12	4	55/6
13	6	61/6
14	6	67/6
15	1	68/7
16	2	70/7
17	9	79/7
18	6	85/7
19	5	90/8
20	1	91/10

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