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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
17 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 88%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Samoa: 0% to 12%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelbowled · SF Tiai2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b SF Tiai | 17 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 113.33 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Darius Visser · Noah Mead 7 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Darius Visser · b Noah Mead | 69 | 41 | 7 | 4 | 168.29 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · S Sola · DE Burgess2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · S Sola · b DE Burgess | 53 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 160.61 |
 Aarif Sheikhlbw · Darius Visser2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Darius Visser | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 128.57 |
 Rohit Kumarnot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 21* | 12 | 1 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Lokesh Bamnot out 2 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 39* | 12 | 2 | 4 | 325.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE Burgess0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| SM Nash0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 14.67 | 0 | 0 |
| CK Jasmat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
| SF Tiai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Visser0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 10.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Noah Mead0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 11.33 | 0 | 0 |
| BF Mailata0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-63 (Kushal Bhurtel, 6.4) · 2-110 (Aasif Sheikh, 12.5) · 3-120 (Aarif Sheikh, 14.0) · 4-160 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 16.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 15 | 42/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 50/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 61/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 65/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 66/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 73/1 |
| 10 | 15 | 88/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 94/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 98/1 |
| 13 | 13 | 111/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 120/3 |
| 15 | 12 | 132/3 |
| 16 | 18 | 150/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 161/4 |
| 18 | 20 | 181/4 |
| 19 | 15 | 196/4 |
| 20 | 15 | 211/4 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
