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India tour of Sri Lanka · 2026 · Men
23 Aug 2026 · Test
Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photographIndia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yashasvi Jaiswalbowled · Asitha Fernando9 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 45 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 84.91 |
 KL Rahulcaught · Niroshan Dickwella · Lahiru Kumara2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Niroshan Dickwella · b Lahiru Kumara | 18 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 54.55 |
| Devdutt Padikkalbowled · Keshara Nuwantha 12 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshara Nuwantha | 117 | 193 | 12 | 0 | 60.62 |
 Shubman Gillcaught · Niroshan Dickwella · Asitha Fernando6 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Niroshan Dickwella · b Asitha Fernando |
| 50 |
| 108 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 46.30 |
 Rishabh Pantcaught · Lahiru Udara · Keshara Nuwantha6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Lahiru Udara · b Keshara Nuwantha | 63 | 89 | 6 | 2 | 70.79 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejabowled · Asitha Fernando4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 43 | 83 | 4 | 0 | 51.81 |
|---|
| Dhruv Jurelnot out 9 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 115* | 177 | 9 | 2 | 64.97 |
|---|
| Saransh Jaincaught · Kamil Mishara · Asitha Fernando 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamil Mishara · b Asitha Fernando | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Manav Sutharcaught · Niroshan Dickwella · Prabath Jayasuriya 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Niroshan Dickwella · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 18 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 35.29 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajlbw · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 10.34 |
|---|
| Prasidh Krishnanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando5 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 29.0 | 5 | 106 | 4 | 3.66 | 1 | 1 |
| Lahiru Kumara4 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 4 | 68 | 1 | 3.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya7 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 42.0 | 7 | 132 | 2 | 3.14 | 4 | 0 |
| Keshara Nuwantha3 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 38.0 | 3 | 154 | 2 | 4.05 | 1 | 2 |
| Sonal Dinusha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamil Mishara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (KL Rahul, 10.4) · 2-66 (Yashasvi Jaiswal, 17.0) · 3-186 (Shubman Gill, 51.5) · 4-281 (Devdutt Padikkal, 76.2) · 5-296 (Ravindra Jadeja, 84.1) · 6-307 (Saransh Jain, 86.5) · 7-419 (Rishabh Pant, 112.1) · 8-458 (Manav Suthar, 124.4) · 9-489 (Mohammed Siraj, 136.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 18/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 19/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 19/0 |
| 10 | 12 | 31/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 38/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 40/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 54/1 |
| 17 | 12 | 66/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 67/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 68/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 75/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 77/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 83/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 83/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 88/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 88/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 91/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 97/2 |
| 29 | 1 | 98/2 |
| 30 | 7 | 105/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 109/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 110/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 116/2 |
| 34 | 0 | 116/2 |
| 35 | 4 | 120/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 126/2 |
| 37 | 3 | 129/2 |
| 38 | 8 | 137/2 |
| 39 | 3 | 140/2 |
| 40 | 2 | 142/2 |
| 41 | 0 | 142/2 |
| 42 | 9 | 151/2 |
| 43 | 8 | 159/2 |
| 44 | 5 | 164/2 |
| 45 | 2 | 166/2 |
| 46 | 4 | 170/2 |
| 47 | 2 | 172/2 |
| 48 | 6 | 178/2 |
| 49 | 4 | 182/2 |
| 50 | 2 | 184/2 |
| 51 | 1 | 185/2 |
| 52 | 2 | 187/3 |
| 53 | 3 | 190/3 |
| 54 | 5 | 195/3 |
| 55 | 3 | 198/3 |
| 56 | 3 | 201/3 |
| 57 | 6 | 207/3 |
| 58 | 1 | 208/3 |
| 59 | 7 | 215/3 |
| 60 | 0 | 215/3 |
| 61 | 3 | 218/3 |
| 62 | 4 | 222/3 |
| 63 | 5 | 227/3 |
| 64 | 1 | 228/3 |
| 65 | 3 | 231/3 |
| 66 | 3 | 234/3 |
| 67 | 1 | 235/3 |
| 68 | 6 | 241/3 |
| 69 | 8 | 249/3 |
| 70 | 10 | 259/3 |
| 71 | 1 | 260/3 |
| 72 | 5 | 265/3 |
| 73 | 6 | 271/3 |
| 74 | 2 | 273/3 |
| 75 | 4 | 277/3 |
| 76 | 4 | 281/3 |
| 77 | 6 | 287/4 |
| 78 | 1 | 288/4 |
| 79 | 3 | 291/4 |
| 80 | 0 | 291/4 |
| 81 | 0 | 291/4 |
| 82 | 4 | 295/4 |
| 83 | 1 | 296/4 |
| 84 | 0 | 296/4 |
| 85 | 4 | 300/5 |
| 86 | 4 | 304/5 |
| 87 | 3 | 307/6 |
| 88 | 2 | 309/6 |
| 89 | 2 | 311/6 |
| 90 | 8 | 319/6 |
| 91 | 2 | 321/6 |
| 92 | 9 | 330/6 |
| 93 | 3 | 333/6 |
| 94 | 2 | 335/6 |
| 95 | 6 | 341/6 |
| 96 | 1 | 342/6 |
| 97 | 12 | 354/6 |
| 98 | 6 | 360/6 |
| 99 | 4 | 364/6 |
| 100 | 3 | 367/6 |
| 101 | 6 | 373/6 |
| 102 | 2 | 375/6 |
| 103 | 1 | 376/6 |
| 104 | 8 | 384/6 |
| 105 | 3 | 387/6 |
| 106 | 2 | 389/6 |
| 107 | 0 | 389/6 |
| 108 | 2 | 391/6 |
| 109 | 6 | 397/6 |
| 110 | 6 | 403/6 |
| 111 | 4 | 407/6 |
| 112 | 12 | 419/6 |
| 113 | 0 | 419/7 |
| 114 | 3 | 422/7 |
| 115 | 9 | 431/7 |
| 116 | 6 | 437/7 |
| 117 | 0 | 437/7 |
| 118 | 1 | 438/7 |
| 119 | 8 | 446/7 |
| 120 | 1 | 447/7 |
| 121 | 1 | 448/7 |
| 122 | 2 | 450/7 |
| 123 | 2 | 452/7 |
| 124 | 4 | 456/7 |
| 125 | 2 | 458/8 |
| 126 | 1 | 459/8 |
| 127 | 1 | 460/8 |
| 128 | 5 | 465/8 |
| 129 | 1 | 466/8 |
| 130 | 2 | 468/8 |
| 131 | 1 | 469/8 |
| 132 | 11 | 480/8 |
| 133 | 0 | 480/8 |
| 134 | 1 | 481/8 |
| 135 | 0 | 481/8 |
| 136 | 8 | 489/8 |
| 137 | 0 | 489/9 |
| 138 | 14 | 503/9 |
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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