New ZealandversusWest Indies

9 Nov 2025 · T20

Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 9 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs177/9 West Indies19.5 overs168/10 Saxton Oval, Nelson ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

75%New Zealand25%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than West Indies (1,647 vs 1,553 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and West Indies won 3
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 76%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.2: JA Duffy to R Shepherd, six by R Shepherd. West Indies up from 13% to 31%.
2nd inns 18.3: JA Duffy to R Shepherd, four by R Shepherd. West Indies up from 31% to 49%.
2nd inns 18.6: JA Duffy to SK Springer, SK Springer out. New Zealand up from 68% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand177/9 West Indies168/10

Innings 1

New Zealand

177/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Devon Conwayrun out · Alick Athanaze · Shamar Springer 6 fours · 2 sixes	run out · Alick Athanaze	56	34	6	2	164.71
Tim Robinsoncaught and bowled · Matthew Forde 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Matthew Forde	23	21	2	0	109.52
Rachin Ravindracaught · Matthew Forde · Romario Shepherd 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Matthew Forde · b Romario Shepherd	26	15	4	0	173.33
Daryl Mitchellcaught · Shamar Springer · Jason Holder 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Shamar Springer · b Jason Holder	41	24	2	3	170.83
Michael Bracewellrun out · Rovman Powell, Jason Holder · Jason Holder1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	0	12.50	0	0
Matthew Forde0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	1	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	0	0
Alick Athanaze0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	0	1
Jason Holder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	0	0
Shamar Springer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	3	15/0
3	9	24/0
4	8	32/0
5	11	43/0
6	4	47/1
7	16	63/1
8	10	73/1
9	11	84/1
10	12	96/1
11	5	101/2
12	10	111/2
13	5	116/3
14	7	123/3
15	19	142/3
16	6	148/4
17	6	154/5
18	12	166/6
19	3	169/8
20	8	177/9

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