Royal Challengers BengaluruversusRajasthan Royals

6 Apr 2024 · T20

Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 6 wickets

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs183/3 Rajasthan Royals19.1 overs189/4 Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 37%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Rajasthan Royals is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 1% to 78% during the match (Rajasthan Royals: 22% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: RJW Topley to YBK Jaiswal, YBK Jaiswal out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 66% to 77%.
2nd inns 9.3: Mohammed Siraj to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. Rajasthan Royals up from 61% to 68%.
2nd inns 10.5: Mayank Dagar to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. Rajasthan Royals up from 69% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru183/3 Rajasthan Royals189/4

Innings 1