ScotlandversusAustralia

7 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Australia won by 6 wickets

Scotland20.0 overs149/9 Australia16.1 overs153/4 Grange Cricket Club Ground, Raeburn Place, Edinburgh ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

20%Scotland80%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Scotland (1,754 vs 1,559 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 3 and Scotland won 0
Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 19%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 30% during the match (Australia: 70% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: AM Hardie to OJ Hairs, OJ Hairs out. Australia up from 75% to 83%.
5.4: C Green to HG Munsey, HG Munsey out. Australia up from 71% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.2: BJ Currie to TM Head, TM Head out. Scotland up from 16% to 26%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland149/9 Australia153/4

Innings 1

Scotland

149/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Travis Head · Cameron Green 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Travis Head · b Cameron Green	25	17	1	2	147.06
Ollie Hairsbowled · Aaron Hardie 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Aaron Hardie	12	8	1	1	150.00
Brandon McMullencaught · Travis Head · Marcus Stoinis 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Travis Head · b Marcus Stoinis	56	39	3	3	143.59
Richie Berringtonbowled · Cameron Green 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Cameron Green	8	9	1	0	88.89
Matty Crossbowled · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adam Zampa	7	13	1	0	53.85

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	2	6.00	0
Sean Abbott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1
Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	0	8.33	0
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	0
Cameron Green0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	3	8.75	1
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	11	18/0
3	9	27/1
4	9	36/1
5	6	42/1
6	12	54/2
7	7	61/2
8	6	67/2
9	7	74/3
10	4	78/3
11	4	82/3
12	10	92/4
13	13	105/4
14	9	114/5
15	9	123/5
16	9	132/5
17	8	140/6
18	4	144/7
19	2	146/8
20	3	149/9

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