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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
11 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Argentina more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Suriname started on 18%; Suriname batted first.
Suriname's chances ranged from 0% to 32% during the match (Argentina: 68% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Hardatcaught · Alejandro Ferguson · Santiago Duggan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alejandro Ferguson · b Santiago Duggan | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Vishaul Singhcaught · Lucas Rossi · A Kirschbaum 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lucas Rossi · b A Kirschbaum | 30 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 90.91 |
| Gavin Singhretired hurt · Hernán Fennell 2 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 15* | 10 | 2 | 0 | 150.00 |
| YP Dayalcaught · AAP Rivero · A Kirschbaum 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AAP Rivero · b A Kirschbaum | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| XSD Smithcaught · AAP Rivero · A Kirschbaum 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AAP Rivero · b A Kirschbaum | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| caught · Manuel Iturbe · b AAP Rivero |
| 22 |
| 23 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 95.65 |
| K Jaikarancaught · Santiago Iturbe · Lucas Rossi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Santiago Iturbe · b Lucas Rossi | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Arun Gokoelrun out · P Baron, Santiago Iturbe · Hernán Fennell 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · P Baron, Santiago Iturbe | 14 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| V Hirlalcaught · P Baron · Hernán Fennell 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · P Baron · b Hernán Fennell | 19 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 126.67 |
|---|
| GI Gokoelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Kirschbaum0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Hernán Fennell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Santiago Duggan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Lucas Rossi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| AAP Rivero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Guido Angeletti0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (K Hardat, 2.4) · 2-55 (YP Dayal, 8.2) · 3-57 (XSD Smith, 8.5) · 4-71 (Vishaul Singh, 10.4) · 5-74 (K Jaikaran, 11.1) · 6-98 (Vishwar Shaw, 16.1) · 7-123 (V Hirlal, 19.5) · 8-123 (Arun Gokoel, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 42/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 49/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 54/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 57/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 62/3 |
| 11 | 12 | 74/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 75/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 84/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 90/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 98/5 |
| 17 | 2 | 100/6 |
| 18 | 11 | 111/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 116/6 |
| 20 | 7 | 123/8 |
Hernán Fennell: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alejandro Ferguson: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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