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West Africa Trophy · 2025/26 · Men
11 Dec 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 89%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 90% to 100% during the match (Sierra Leone: 0% to 11%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulaimon Runsewecaught · S Williams · J Lassayo 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · S Williams · b J Lassayo | 36 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 138.46 |
| Ali Rahmonrun out · J Bangura · Mohamed Turay 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · J Bangura | 20 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 86.96 |
| Isaac Danladirun out · J Bangura, C Bah · C Bah 9 fours · 1 sixes | run out · J Bangura, C Bah | 64 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 182.86 |
| Sylvester Okpebowled · L Lamin 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b L Lamin | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 121.43 |
| Vincent Adewoyebowled · A Gbla 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b A Gbla | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 137.50 |
| Isaac Okpe |
| caught · Brima Ansumana · b C Bah |
| 20 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 153.85 |
| K Bonifacerun out · J Bangura, Ibrahim Kpaka · C Bah 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · J Bangura, Ibrahim Kpaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| E Ndubudemnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Bah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| S Williams0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Gbla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| AB Kamara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| J Lassayo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 16.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Turay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| R Coker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| L Lamin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-57 (Sulaimon Runsewe, 8.1) · 2-74 (Ali Rahmon, 9.2) · 3-116 (Sylvester Okpe, 13.5) · 4-135 (Vincent Adewoye, 16.1) · 5-165 (Isaac Danladi, 19.3) · 6-169 (Isaac Okpe, 19.5) · 7-171 (K Boniface, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 41/0 |
| 8 | 16 | 57/0 |
| 9 | 13 | 70/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 78/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 83/2 |
| 12 | 20 | 103/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 117/3 |
| 15 | 13 | 130/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 135/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 142/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 147/4 |
| 19 | 13 | 160/4 |
| 20 | 11 | 171/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.