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Sri Lanka Women tour of South Africa · 2023/24 · Women
17 Apr 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 87%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtnot out23 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 184* | 147 | 23 | 4 | 125.17 |
| Lara Goodallcaught · Imesha Dulani · Kavisha Dilhari 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imesha Dulani · b Kavisha Dilhari | 31 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 56.36 |
| Delmi Tuckerrun out · Vishmi Gunaratne · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Vishmi Gunaratne | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
| Suné Luuslbw · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Marizanne Kapprun out · Kawya Kavindi · Oshadi Ranasinghe5 fours · 1 sixes |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 97% during the match (Sri Lanka: 3% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Kawya Kavindi |
| 36 |
| 34 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 105.88 |
| Nadine de Klerkcaught · Hansima Karunaratne · Kavisha Dilhari 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hansima Karunaratne · b Kavisha Dilhari | 35 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 72.92 |
|---|
| Eliz-Mari Marxnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 180.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 5.90 | 1 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 5.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Kawya Kavindi0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Oshadi Ranasinghe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
1-116 (Lara Goodall, 21.2) · 2-124 (Delmi Tucker, 24.1) · 3-124 (Suné Luus, 24.2) · 4-187 (Marizanne Kapp, 35.0) · 5-279 (Nadine de Klerk, 48.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 25/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 30/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 38/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 40/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 46/0 |
| 11 | 24 | 70/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 74/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 77/0 |
| 14 | 3 | 80/0 |
| 15 | 5 | 85/0 |
| 16 | 6 | 91/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 96/0 |
| 18 | 6 | 102/0 |
| 19 | 7 | 109/0 |
| 20 | 2 | 111/0 |
| 21 | 4 | 115/0 |
| 22 | 2 | 117/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 123/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 124/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 125/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 128/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 132/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 138/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 139/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 147/3 |
| 32 | 11 | 158/3 |
| 33 | 12 | 170/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 176/3 |
| 35 | 11 | 187/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 190/4 |
| 37 | 8 | 198/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 200/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 208/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 214/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 218/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 224/4 |
| 43 | 10 | 234/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 242/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 247/4 |
| 46 | 12 | 259/4 |
| 47 | 8 | 267/4 |
| 48 | 11 | 278/4 |
| 49 | 6 | 284/5 |
| 50 | 17 | 301/5 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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