Hobart HurricanesversusAdelaide Strikers

9 Jan 2026 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 37 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs178/6 Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs141/9 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 61%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Adelaide Strikers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (Adelaide Strikers: 0% to 40%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: RP Meredith to MW Short, MW Short out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 63% to 73%.
2nd inns 1.3: RP Meredith to MW Harvey, MW Harvey out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 74% to 83%.
2nd inns 2.3: NT Ellis to CA Lynn, CA Lynn out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 86% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes178/6 Adelaide Strikers141/9

Innings 1