IrelandversusItaly

26 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Italy won by 4 wickets

Ireland19.4 overs154/10 Italy19.3 overs157/6 7he Sevens Stadium, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

61%Ireland39%Italy

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 3 and Italy won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Italy rate stronger than Ireland (1,492 vs 1,488 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 58%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Italy is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 16% to 91% during the match (Italy: 9% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.4: MJ Humphreys to WL Madsen, WL Madsen out. Ireland up from 35% to 53%.
2nd inns 19.1: BJ McCarthy to G Stewart, six by G Stewart. Italy up from 13% to 39%.
2nd inns 19.2: BJ McCarthy to G Stewart, six by G Stewart. Italy up from 39% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland154/10 Italy157/6

Innings 1

Ireland

154/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Paul Stirlingbowled · CJPF Kalugamage 2 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b CJPF Kalugamage	45	38	2	3	118.42
Ross Adairbowled · Ali Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ali Hasan	6	8	0	0	75.00
Harry Tectorcaught · Ali Hasan · CJPF Kalugamage 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ali Hasan · b CJPF Kalugamage	13	9	2	0	144.44
Lorcan Tuckerstumped · Gian-Piero Meade · CJPF Kalugamage 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Gian-Piero Meade · b CJPF Kalugamage	0	4	0	0	0.00
Ben Calitz

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ali Hasan0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	0	30	1	10.00	2	2
Grant Stewart0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.4	0	27	2	7.36	1	1
Jaspreet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	25	0	12.50	0	0
Jon-Jon Smuts1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	18	2	4.50	0	0
Harry Manenti0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	26	0	8.67	3	0
CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	28	3	7.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	6	11/0
3	11	22/1
4	17	39/1
5	12	51/1
6	4	55/1
7	10	65/1
8	2	67/3
9	3	70/3
10	18	88/3
11	3	91/4
12	4	95/5
13	0	95/6
14	4	99/6
15	8	107/6
16	14	121/6
17	6	127/6
18	12	139/7
19	10	149/8
20	5	154/10

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