NetherlandsversusScotland

Scotland more likely to win

Why

• Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 6 and Netherlands won 4
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Scotland (1,706 vs 1,687 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Netherlands started on 41%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Scotland: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 2.2: KL Gordon to P Molkenboer, P Molkenboer out. Scotland up from 41% to 50%.
2. 10.2: C Abel to RA Lawrence, RA Lawrence out. Scotland up from 58% to 70%.
3. 2nd inns 4.2: I van der Woning to DEM Carter, 1 run to DEM Carter. Scotland up from 79% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.