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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
9 Apr 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 57%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbi Aitkencaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Hayley Matthews 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shemaine Campbelle · b Hayley Matthews | 21 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 65.63 |
| Darcey Cartercaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Hayley Matthews 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Hayley Matthews | 25 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 52.08 |
| Kathryn Brycecaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Hayley Matthews 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shemaine Campbelle · b Hayley Matthews | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Sarah Brycecaught · Karishma Ramharack · Hayley Matthews 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Hayley Matthews | 55 | 56 | 6 | 0 | 98.21 |
| Ailsa Listerrun out · Chinelle Henry · Hayley Matthews 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Chinelle Henry | 19 | 22 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 17% to 99% during the match (West Indies: 1% to 83%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 86.36 |
| Megan McCollrun out · Chinelle Henry · Karishma Ramharack 5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Chinelle Henry | 45 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 102.27 |
|---|
| Katherine Frasernot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 25* | 27 | 2 | 1 | 92.59 |
|---|
| Priyanaz Chatterjilbw · Karishma Ramharack 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karishma Ramharack | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Chloe Abellbw · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karishma Ramharack | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Hannah Raineycaught · Karishma Ramharack · Aaliyah Alleyne 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Abtaha Maqsoodlbw · Aaliyah Alleyne 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaida James1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Cherry-Ann Fraser0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 6 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 4 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 0 | 1 |
 Karishma Ramharack1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 46 | 2 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-48 (Abbi Aitken, 11.2) · 2-62 (Kathryn Bryce, 13.4) · 3-69 (Darcey Carter, 15.5) · 4-100 (Ailsa Lister, 21.2) · 5-182 (Sarah Bryce, 33.3) · 6-194 (Megan McColl, 36.1) · 7-212 (Priyanaz Chatterji, 38.5) · 8-232 (Chloe Abel, 42.1) · 9-242 (Hannah Rainey, 44.3) · 10-244 (Abtaha Maqsood, 45.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 13/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 23/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 32/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 41/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 44/0 |
| 12 | 9 | 53/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 61/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 63/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 66/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 70/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 73/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 79/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 82/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 89/3 |
| 21 | 10 | 99/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 23 | 6 | 107/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 110/4 |
| 25 | 11 | 121/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 128/4 |
| 27 | 8 | 136/4 |
| 28 | 9 | 145/4 |
| 29 | 11 | 156/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 164/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 170/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 174/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 179/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 186/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 187/5 |
| 36 | 7 | 194/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 198/6 |
| 38 | 8 | 206/6 |
| 39 | 7 | 213/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 216/7 |
| 41 | 6 | 222/7 |
| 42 | 10 | 232/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 232/8 |
| 44 | 6 | 238/8 |
| 45 | 6 | 244/10 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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